Food security is one of the pillars of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (i.e., SDG #2 Zero Hunger), which serves as a blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all [16]. The emergence of the novel coronavirus in 2019 (COVID-19) led to the disruption of livelihoods, livestock, agriculture, and supply chains [9, 18]. Ironically, the United Nations, through its specialized agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), was presciently preparing for the COVID-19 pandemic when it adopted the theme—safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns, emphasizing the importance of protecting nutrition and food security during the crisis in 2019.
Measures (quarantines, lockdowns, restrictions on the movement of goods and people) taken to achieve control of the pandemic have had undesirable effects with significant socio-economic repercussions [6], especially for poor rural farmers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) [14]. These socio-economic repercussions of the COVID-19 responsive measures pushed approximately half a billion people into poverty, communities in SSA, North Africa, and the Middle East were hit the hardest [22, 26, 27]. Particularly, sub-Saharan Africa, where half of the countries have poverty rates higher than 35% (if we consider the international poverty line, which is currently $1.90 a day) [20], saw the largest increases in extreme poverty, with an additional 24 million people living below the poverty line due to the pandemic [3].
SSA accounts for about 13% of the global population. Moreover, as suggested above, the number of poor and undernourished people remains high among rural communities [24]. SSA’s vulnerability to the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 was exacerbated by factors such as poor health facilities, low capacity for testing, timely detection, and response to COVID-19 cases [6, 7]. In addition, the latest figures in Africa show that no less than 50% of the African population is dependent on agriculture as their primary source of livelihood and food [17]. For a continent that relies heavily on rainfed agriculture as the foundation of the economy, the complete and partial lockdown undermined food security and threatened food production as it coincided in many cases with the planting periods [10].
Regarding spending by the agricultural sector, less than 20% of the countries in SSA accomplished their commitments to accelerated agricultural growth and transformation and the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) [2]. Expectedly, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to worsen this situation and the challenges faced by over 1.3 billion Africans [1]. Furthermore, shocking evidence suggested that in less than thirty days into the lockdown, more than half of the households in Malawi, Nigeria, Kenya, and Sierra Leone ran out of food [11, 19]. The closure of schools also amplified the problem as it limited children’s access to school feeding programs across all SSA countries, especially in Nigeria.
The population in Africa is expected to double by 2050, and the demand for food to triple [16]. By discouraging major grain-exporting countries from banning exports, the G20 provided the platform that enabled a smooth flow of grain to the SSA region when India, Russia, Cambodia, and Vietnam lifted the ban on exports [21]. Various SSA countries such as Zimbabwe, Zambia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Nigeria, and Malawi ensured food security by increasing grain imports [21, 25]. In addition, these countries also rolled out schemes to support farmer input and assist farmers ahead of the production season, which started in the last quarter of 2020 for most countries [21]. Nonetheless, there have been serious concerns that corruption, poor farmer targeting, and bureaucratic complexities could cripple these farm input subsidies initiatives.
The food security situation in SSA has turned out better than feared, although some risks remain. The higher rainfall during the 2020–2021 summer in southern and eastern regions of SSA is another significant development as it allowed for increased plantings and improved crop production conditions. Interestingly, as estimated by the US Department of Agriculture, there are appreciable prospects of increased maize production in several SSA countries. For example, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe showed prospects of large maize and wheat harvests [25]. These facts suggest an improved harvest for grains and other crops and increased livestock conditions in SSA. On the other hand, the food security situation in SSA could be improved if the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) is effectively implemented (and non-tariff barriers reduced) because this will increase competition among farmers and merchants and thus better quality of goods at reduced prices for the consumers [4].
Although SSA has sought solutions to mitigate the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security, this current global stressor has highlighted the need to develop a sustainable intervention to boost food systems in SSA. In this light, this paper seeks to evaluate the implications of COVID-19 on food security in SSA, using observational cases, situational analysis reports, and digital online data sources. We argue that the ongoing debate about the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 in SSA should focus on, among other things, food security by providing some sustainable recommendations and policy prescriptions to quell food worries in the post-COVID-19 pandemic era.
As suggested above, as of 2020, more than one-third of the population in sub-Saharan was undernourished. In Africa, 282 million people were experiencing hunger, more than double the proportion of any other region in the world. Across East Africa, conditions are deteriorating, with millions of people facing hunger and severe food insecurity. As expected, these levels of food insecurity worsened further in 2021, while a decline in diminished purchasing power, lost livelihoods, income opportunities, and limited access to basic food and services are all continuing into 2022. This situation is exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine war and its negative effects on food, energy (oil and gas) and fertilizer prices.
The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between COVID-19 and food security indicators in a sample of sub-Saharan African countries. We restricted the sample countries to 9 sub-Saharan African countries due to the inconsistent data availability of the data points used in the study. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on food security and COVID-19 nexus. Current literature has either used deductive approach to explain how COVID-19 has influenced different food security indicators or provided descriptive statistics on the food security indicators during COVID-19. In addition, some empirical studies have examined the interplay of COVID-19 and the oil and stock market. The gap that our study attempts to fill is to explore how each specific food indicator (accessibility, availability, utilization and stability) relates with COVID-19. The second and most important contribution of this study is that we consider, the relationship between COVID-19 and coronavirus pandemic on developing country subset, whereas many empirical studies have focused on developed countries.
The rest of the paper is structured as follows: theoretical linkages and stylized facts about food security are presented in the next section. Methodology provides the model specification and empirical strategy. Data discusses issues related to data sources and the measurement of variables. The empirical results are presented and discussed in Dependent variables/food security indicators. The last section concludes the paper with the main findings and policy implications.