Integrated modelling of the determinants of household food insecurity during the 2020–2021 COVID-19 lockdown in Uganda

Semakula, Henry Musoke; Liang, Song; McKune, Sarah Lindley; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Mugagga, Frank; Nseka, Denis; Wasswa, Hannington; Kayima, Patrick; Achuu, Simon Peter; Mwendwa, Patrick; Nakato, Jovia

doi:10.1186/s40066-023-00460-2

Agriculture & Food Security

Table 3 The contribution of the determinants to each food insecurity indicators

From: Integrated modelling of the determinants of household food insecurity during the 2020–2021 COVID-19 lockdown in Uganda

Nodes and states	Initial state-beliefs^a	New state-beliefs^b	Changes in beliefs^c	Percentage point change
Indicator 1: Not having enough food to eat
No	0.57845	–	–	–
Yes	0.42155	1 *	–	–
Produced enough food
No	0.40118	0.49322	0.09204	9.20^†
Yes	0.59882	0.50678	− 0.09204	− 9.20
Ability to buy food
No	0.60279	0.63862	0.03583	3.58^†
Yes	0.39721	0.36138	− 0.03583	− 3.58
Total household income status
Increased	0.19967	0.19518	− 0.00449	− 0.45
Reduced	0.41969	0.43030	0.01061	1.06^†
Stayed the same	0.28443	0.26651	− 0.01792	− 1.79
No earnings	0.09621	0.10801	0.01180	1.18^†
Ability to access food markets
No	0.55910	0.58130	0.02220	2.22^†
Yes	0.44090	0.41870	− 0.02220	− 2.22
Total value of assistance
Below 15 dollars	0.74184	0.75167	0.00983	0.98^†
15–30 dollars	0.03157	0.03185	0.00028	0.03^†
Above 30 dollars	0.19966	0.18688	− 0.01278	− 1.28
None	0.02692	0.02959	0.00267	0.27^†
Indicator 2: Unable to eat healthy food
No	0.50048	–	–	–
Yes	0.49952	1 *	–	–
Produced enough food
No	0.39478	0.47903	0.08425	8.43^†
Yes	0.60522	0.52097	− 0.08425	− 8.42
Ability to buy food
No	0.60284	0.63221	0.02937	2.94^†
Yes	0.39716	0.36779	− 0.02937	− 2.94
Total household income status
Increased	0.19971	0.19754	− 0.00217	− 0.22
Reduced	0.42012	0.43488	0.01476	1.48^†
Stayed the same	0.28414	0.26627	− 0.01787	− 1.79
No earnings	0.096034	0.10131	0.00528	0.53^†
Ability to access food markets
No	0.55875	0.57624	0.01749	1.75^†
Yes	0.44125	0.42376	− 0.01749	− 1.75
Total value of assistance
Below 15 dollars	0.67230	0.6677	− 0.00460	− 0.46
15–30 dollars	0.03207	0.02914	− 0.00293	− 0.29
Above 30 dollars	0.27598	0.26775	− 0.00823	− 0.82
None	0.02782	0.027189	0.00071	0.07^†
Indictor 3: Ate few kinds of food
No	0.52195	–	–	–
Yes	0.47805	1 *	–	–
Produced enough food
No	0.39467	0.4643	0.06963	6.96^†
Yes	0.60533	0.5357	-0.06963	-6.96
Ability to buy food
No	0.60281	0.63441	0.0316	3.16^†
Yes	0.39719	0.36559	− 0.0316	− 3.16
Total household income status
Increased	0.19951	0.19134	− 0.00817	− 0.82
Reduced	0.41972	0.42267	0.00295	0.30^†
Stayed the same	0.28444	0.27911	− 0.00533	− 0.53
No earnings	0.09632	0.10688	0.01056	1.06^†
Total value of assistance
Below 15 dollars	0.74008	0.73551	− 0.00457	− 0.46
15–30 dollars	0.031885	0.02898	− 0.00291	− 0.29
Above 30 dollars	0.20904	0.20058	− 0.00846	− 0.85
None	0.02647	0.02745	0.00098	0.10^†
Household size
1–4	0.23776	0.23180	− 0.00596	− 0.60
5–8	0.55070	0.54989	− 0.00081	− 0.08
Above 8	0.21154	0.21831	0.00677	0.68^†
Indicator 4: Skipped a meal
No	0.74763	–	–	–
Yes	0.25237	1 *	–	–
Produced enough food
No	0.39647	0.52208	0.12561	12.56^†
Yes	0.60353	0.47792	− 0.12561	− 12.56
Total value of assistance
Below 15 dollars	0.63591	0.6875	0.05159	5.16^†
15–30 dollars	0.03112	0.0413	0.01018	1.02^†
Above 30 dollars	0.30495	0.2374	− 0.06755	− 6.76
None	0.02802	0.0338	0.00578	0.58^†
Ability to buy food
No	0.60279	0.65966	0.05687	5.69^†
Yes	0.39721	0.34034	− 0.05687	− 5.69
Total household income status
Increased	0.20281	0.1997	− 0.00311	− 0.31
Reduced	0.4199	0.42059	0.00069	0.07^†
Stayed the same	0.2840	0.25035	− 0.03365	− 3.37
No earnings	0.0963	0.12626	0.02996	3.00^†
Ability to stock enough food
No	0.31677	0.35267	0.0359	3.59^†
Yes	0.68323	0.64733	− 0.0359	− 3.59
Indicator 5: Ate less food
No	0.6789	–	–	–
Yes	0.3211	1 *	–	–
Produced enough food
No	0.39795	0.51438	0.11643	11.64^†
Yes	0.60205	0.48562	− 0.11643	− 11.64
Ability to buy food
No	0.60282	0.66224	0.05942	5.94^†
Yes	0.39718	0.33776	− 0.05942	− 5.94
Total household income status
Increased	0.19941	0.19153	− 0.00788	− 0.79
Reduced	0.42053	0.42702	0.00649	0.65^†
Stayed the same	0.28372	0.26153	− 0.02219	− 2.22
No earnings	0.096337	0.11992	0.02358	2.36^†
Total value of assistance
Below 15 dollars	0.61671	0.63117	0.01446	1.45^†
15–30 dollars	0.030917	0.03387	0.00295	0.30^†
Above 30 dollars	0.32389	0.30038	− 0.02351	− 2.35
None	0.028483	0.03459	0.00611	0.61^†
Ability to access food markets
No	0.55944	0.58448	0.02504	2.50^†
Yes	0.44056	0.41552	− 0.02504	− 2.50
Indicator 6: Ran out of food
No	0.81882	–	–	–
Yes	0.18118	1 *	–	–
Produced enough food
No	0.39431	0.49087	0.09656	9.66^†
Yes	0.60569	0.50913	− 0.09656	− 9.66
Total value of assistance
Below 15 dollars	0.72697	0.75899	0.03202	3.20^†
15–30 dollars	0.03249	0.05302	0.02053	2.05^†
Above 30 dollars	0.20710	0.15541	− 0.05169	− 5.17
None	0.03258	0.03353	0.00095	0.09^†
Total household income status
Increased	0.20984	0.19989	− 0.00995	− 0.99
Reduced	0.40563	0.41977	0.01414	1.41^†
Stayed the same	0.28410	0.24351	− 0.04059	− 4.06
No earnings	0.09623	0.14102	0.04479	4.48^†
Ability to buy food
No	0.60287	0.67042	0.06755	6.76^†
Yes	0.39713	0.32958	− 0.06755	− 6.76
Sex of household head
Female	0.31011	0.35081	0.0407	4.07^†
Male	0.68989	0.64919	− 0.0407	− 4.07
Indicator 7: Nothing to eat (Went hungry)
No	0.80398	–	–	–
Yes	0.19602	1 *	–	–
Produced enough food
No	0.39452	0.4995	0.10498	10.50^†
Yes	0.60548	0.5005	-0.10498	-10.50
Total value of assistance
Below 15 dollars	0.72549	0.75777	0.03228	3.23^†
15–30 dollars	0.03171	0.04526	0.01355	1.36^†
Above 30 dollars	0.21651	0.15687	− 0.05964	− 5.96
None	0.02629	0.04009	0.0138	1.38^†
Total household income status
Increased	0.21583	0.19982	− 0.01601	− 1.60
Reduced	0.41106	0.41995	0.00889	0.89^†
Stayed the same	0.28387	0.24193	− 0.04194	− 4.19
No earnings	0.09636	0.13118	0.03482	3.48^†
Ability to buy food
No	0.60286	0.66915	0.06629	6.63^†
Yes	0.39714	0.33085	− 0.06629	− 6.63
Ability to stock enough food
No	0.31681	0.37415	0.05734	5.73^†
Yes	0.68320	0.62585	− 0.05735	− 5.74
Indicator 8: Went without food for a whole day
No	0.90298	–	–	–
Yes	0.09702	1 *	–	–
Total value of assistance
Below 15 dollars	0.63703	0.71483	0.0778	7.78^†
15–30 dollars	0.03427	0.08120	0.04693	4.69^†
Above 30 dollars	0.23735	0.13238	− 0.10497	− 10.50
None	0.07159	0.09135	0.01976	1.98^†
Ability to stock enough food
No	0.31673	0.44797	0.13124	13.12^†
Yes	0.68327	0.55203	− 0.13124	− 13.12
Total household income
Increased	0.22186	0.20020	− 0.02166	− 2.17
Reduced	0.35495	0.41914	0.06419	6.42^†
Stayed the same	0.28419	0.24747	− 0.03672	− 3.67
No earnings	0.09648	0.17572	0.07924	7.92^†
Produced enough food
No	0.39263	0.50634	0.11371	11.37^†
Yes	0.60737	0.49366	− 0.11371	− 11.37
Location of residence
Rural	0.74199	0.66636	− 0.07563	− 7.56
Urban	0.25801	0.33364	0.07563	7.56^†

^aRepresents the initial state belief probabilities of each determinant in the compiled BBN models shown in Fig. 3.and Additional file: Fig. S1–Fig. S7
^bReflects new state belief probabilities when the ‘Yes’ state belief finding in the food insecurity indicator nodes of the BBN models were tagged to probability of 1
^cIndicates changes in probabilities from the initial to new state-beliefs
^*the ‘Yes’ state of each outcome variable (i.e. Food insecurity indicator) was tagged to the probability of 1 to estimate the contribution of the selected determinant on food insecurity
^†Represents the actual determinants and their positive contribution to each food insecurity indicator

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