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Table 2 Key elements of AgResults challenge projects

From: An evaluation framework and empirical evidence on the effect of pay-for-results programs on the development of markets for welfare-enhancing agricultural technologies

Development goal Prize design Theory of change
Nigeria Aflasafe project
Lay foundation for aflatoxin-reduced maize market by establishing a smallholder-inclusive supply base for Aflasafe-treated, maize Fixed payment per ton of Aflasafe-treated maize aggregated from smallholder farmers by AgResults participating maize traders Guaranteeing a minimum return on procurement of Aflasafe-treated maize will reduce traders’ risk of investing in Aflasafe-treated maize market, helping to create a supply base that will serve the market as demand develops
Kenya on-farm storage project
Create market for smallholder farmer-appropriate improved on-farm storage technologies to reduce post-harvest loss and improve food security Proportional and milestone prizes based on competitors’ market share in sales of total storage capacity as long as they met minimum threshold of sales Prize incentives will de-risk investment needed to overcome major barriers to development of improved on-farm storage market, leading to establishment of a competitive, smallholder farmer-inclusive and sustainable market
Zambia biofortified maize project
Reduce vitamin-A deficiency by creating a market for biofortified pro-Vitamin-A maize Per-unit prizes to participating maize millers and seed companies based on sales of Pro-vitamin-A maize milled flour and maize seeds Guaranteed returns will increase seed companies and millers’ appetites for risk of investing in pro-vitamin-A maize market, leading to development of both demand for and supply of pro-vitamin-A maize
Uganda legume seed project
Improve yield, consumption, and income and yields from smallholder farmers’ legume production by strengthening the market for quality legume seed Participating seed companies receive annual prizes for increasing sales of quality legume seed above their own expected baseline levels of sales Guaranteed returns on sales of legume seed will increase profitability and reduce risk to seed companies of investing to production and sale of legume seed, sustainably increasing levels of legume seed market sales