Schematic of the historical trajectory of food production, incomes and nutrition within the socioecological system with respect to food security and natural capital over time juxtaposed with potential future outcomes. Placement of ‘environmental awareness’ indicates that this factor gained prominence in the socioecological system as food security and natural capital diminished with respect to the trajectory of food production, income and nutrition. Positive outcomes are shaded in green, and the ‘business as usual’ and ‘doomsday’ outcomes are shaded in orange. Climate-smart agriculture plays a role in building positive outcomes such as the ‘green economy’. Adapted with permission from M van Noordwijk (personal communication, 2014).