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Table 1 Some expected negative impacts of climate change on crop production by regions a

From: Re-orienting crop improvement for the changing climatic conditions of the 21st century

· Crop yields could decrease by up to 30% in Central and South Asia
· More than 28million hectares (ha) in arid and semi-arid regions of South and East Asia will require substantial (at least 10%) increases in irrigation for a 1 °C increase in temperature.
· One of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability
· With many semi-arid regions and projected increase of 5% to 8% by the 2080s, likely reduction in the length of growing seasons will render further large regions of marginal agriculture out of production
· Projected reductions in crop yields of up to 50% by 2020
· Fall in crop net revenues by up to 90% by 2100
· Population of 75 to 250 million people at risk of increased water stress by the 2020s and 350 to 600 million people by the 2050s
Australia and New Zealand
· Agricultural production may decline by 2030 over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire
· Change land use in southern Australia, with cropping becoming non-viable at the dry margins
· Production of Australian temperate fruits and nuts will drop on account of reduced winter chill
· Geographical spread of a major horticultural pest, the Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni), may spread to other areas including the currently quarantined fruit fly-free zone
· Crop productivity is likely to decrease along the Mediterranean and in south-eastern Europe
· Differences in water availability between regions are anticipated to increase
· Much of European flora is likely to become vulnerable, endangered or committed to extinction by the end of this century
· Increased climate sensitivity is anticipated in the south-eastern USA and in the USA corn belt making yield unpredictable
· Yields and/or quality of crops currently near climate thresholds (for example, wine grapes in California) are likely to decrease
· Yields of cotton, soybeans, and barley are likely to change
· Risk of extinctions of important species
· By the 2050s, 50% of agricultural lands in drier areas may be affected by desertification and salinization
· Generalized reductions in rice yields by the 2020s
· Reductions in land suitable for growing coffee in Brazil, and reductions in coffee production in Mexico
· The incidence of the coffee leaf miner (Perileucoptera coffeella) and the nematode Meloidogyne incognita are likely to increase in Brazil’s coffee production area
· Risk of Fusarium head blight in wheat is very likely to increase in southern Brazil and in Uruguay
· Subsistence and commercial agriculture on small islands will be adversely affected by climate change
· In mid- and high-latitude islands, higher temperatures and the retreat and loss of snow cover could enhance the spread of invasive species including alien microbes, fungi, plants, and animals
  1. aAdapted from the Second Report on the State of the World’s Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture [38].